Ballon d'Or power rankings 2025: Strongest contenders for the next Ballon d'Or

Liverpool legend Mohamed Salah has surged to the top of the 2025 Ballon d'Or ladder following the Reds' Premier League triumph with four games to spare.Despite a disappointing campaign in other tournaments, most notably the UEFA Champions League, where they suffered an early round of 16 exit, the weight of a Premier League crown has been enough to tip the scale in his favour. However, Salah's fate isn't entirely in his own hands. The Egyptian will be hoping that Barcelona, leaders in Spain, somehow capitulate and surrender the La Liga trophy. Barcelona trio of Lamine, Raphinha and Lewandowski are just hairbreadths away. Even if they fall short, the looming presence of Ousmane Dembélé could prove decisive, as a Champions League victory would almost certainly secure him the Ballon d’Or.

Time feels especially kind to Salah at Anfield. With an apparently ageless style, the 31-year-old Egyptian sensation keeps penning his own legend in the Premier League. In just 33 games, Salah has delivered a seemingly impossible 27 goals and 18 assists, ranking highest on both the goalscoring and assists chart. He is also on track to break Henry's and De Bruyne's joint legendary record of 20 assists in a single season.

Mohamed Salah has both scored the most goals in Europe's big five leagues and provided the most assists, in a two-way efficiency remeniscent of serial Ballon d'Or winner, Lionel Messi.

With the Liverpool star scoring or assisting in 86.2% of league games this season, the highest ratio among players in Europe with 20 or more appearances, Salah's season precisely combines efficiency and stability.

However, his stats of 3 goals and 4 assists in 9 UCL games seem a little lacking, especially given the Egyptian's no-show in the round of 16 loss to Paris Saint-Germain. Despite the UCL exit, the "Reds" are champions of England.

Although data-wise, Salah has a small advantage in output, Rapinha's Champions League performance and the importance of the competition are more convincing.

Furthermore, the Ballon d'Or choices have always favoured the core members of the Champions League-winning team; thus, if Raphinha or Dembele can lead their respective clubs to the top of Europe, they will almost certainly win the trophy over Salah, who needed to win both the Premier League and the Champions League to replicate the "lone hero" narrative of Benzema in '22.

Once referred to as the "glass man" and "two-footed wild card," Ousmane Dembélé has now emerged as the central core for Paris Saint-Germain and the first "league champion" among Ballon d'Or contenders in 2025.

The Frenchman guided PSG to lock down the league title six rounds ahead of schedule with career-best figures of 21 goals and five assists in 26 games and is now finely poised to take home the league top scorer honour.

His goal efficiency of a goal every 73 minutes is the best in the big five European leagues, in addition to his seven goals and three assists in 12 games in the Champions League.

Ousmane Dembélé ranks in the top 5 in Ligue 1 for:

• goals scored,
• chances created
• total shots on target,
• total goal contributions, 
• goal per shot, 
• passes into penalty area, 
• progressive carries, and
• points per match. 

He also overperforms on his XG by 6 goals, the 6th highest in Europe's big five leagues.

Dembélé has been totally awakened by Enrique's tactical revolution, allowing him a free front line role to regularly interchange with the equally amazing Kvaratskhelia. This resulted in him scoring the most goals in Europe in the first three months of 2025.

Dembélé was pivotal in PSG's seamless dispatch of English dark horse, Aston Villa, recording an assist in both leg of the Champions League quarterfinal tie.

Still, despite this worldclass heroics, his position as leader of the pack is likely temporary as this Ligue 1 trophy has not seen him go considerably clear of Raphinha, favourite for the Spanish league.

The Barcelona star continues to deliver exceptional performances in the more fierce La Liga, thereby keeping the balance from entirely tilting in his favour.

This positions the Champions League as the ultimate decider.

Dembélé's most notable performances in the Champions League have come against English boys Manchester City and Liverpool, and he will now be crossing paths with another Premier League side in the well-drilled Arsenal.

With Barcelona's triumph in the Copa Del Rey, it is now impossible for Dembélé to win the Ballon d'Or without the UCL trophy.

Therefore, like Neymar's incredible performance at Camp Nou in 2017, Ousmane Dembélé must provide an all-timer against the elite club if he is to really hold the sway in the Ballon d'Or conversation.

Lamine Yamal is the chosen one the world of football has been desperately yearning for since Lionel Messi's departure from Europe. With maturity beyond his years, the 17-year-old La Masia academy graduate in 24/25 stunned the globe with 6 goals and 12 assists in 29 games as well as 7 goal contribution in 11 Champions League outing.

Behind only the ageless Salah in terms of creativity in Europe (based on number of assists), Lamine has been Barcelona's propeller this season, completing the most through balls across all of the continent's big five leagues.

Barcelona's right flank corridor has been totally ignited by his presence, as he has completed the most dribbles in Europe's top 5 leagues, and has most notably set the footballing world alight with his trademark trivela passes.

With his magnificent performance in the Copa Del Rey final, Yamal has now scored or assisted in every final he started in throughout his career.

While the harsh reality of the Ballon d'Or is that potential cannot be traded for instant honours, Lamine Yamal has broken this ceiling with a remarkable ability that has not just put him on the Ballon d'Or shortlist, but has also seen him usurp Raphinha as the new frontrunner.

Yamal has navigated the spikier rungs of the Ballon d'Or ladder with relative ease, and now needs either the Champions League or La Liga title to crown his impressive efforts.

Raphinha's incredible 24/25 season is the ideal mix of time, circumstances, and teamwork. The Brazilian winger has been handed a new tactical role since Hans Flick took over Barcelona—from a conventional wide playmaker to an attacking core engaged in both organisation and finishing. This tweak has completely unleashed his full all-around abilities.

Raphinha contributed 15 goals and 9 assists in the first 30 La Liga games and leads the Champions League g/a chart with a terrific efficiency of 12 goals and 7 assists after 12 matches.

His offensive involvement has been exceptional, ranking in the 98th percentile across Europe for non-penalty expected goals (npxG), while his expected assists (xAG) reach the 99th percentile, demonstrating that he is not only a finisher but also an engine for chance creation.

Raphinha's ascent is intricately intertwined with his influence in big games. He etched his name into El Clásico by scoring twice against Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup final, and his hat-trick against Bayern Munich in the Champions League group stage totally broke the 'Barça fear of Germany' curse.

His three goal contributions in the first leg against Dortmund was the deciding factor that facilitated Barcelona's qualification for the semis.

From the standpoint of team accolades, Barcelona's three-front title-competing capability somewhat exceeds Liverpool's single-front effort, giving Raphinha an edge over Salah.

More crucially, Raphinha's creativity has become Barcelona's lifeline, ranking in the top five in Europe's Top 5 leagues for chance creation.

Barcelona have advanced to the semi-finals of the Champions League, are runaway leaders of a tightly contested La Liga season, and are Copa del Rey winners.

Thus, thanks to this momentum in three competitions, Raphinha's Ballon d'Or path is built on a strong foundation.

Despite Yamal's more catchy performances, the Brazilian is the odds-on favourite for the 2025 Ballon d'Or and backs these shouts with strong numbers. Raphinha ranks in top five in La Liga for the following metrics:

• goals scored,
• assists provided, 
• chances created,
• total shots on target,
• total goal contributions, 
• goal per shot, 
• successful dribbles
• passes into penalty area, and 
• crosses. 

These numbers, no matter how impressive, are entirely useless without a major trophy to show for it. If Barcelona can replicate the splendour of the "treble" with Raphinha as the core, the Brazilian will not only be the new ruler of Camp Nou but also the first Blaugrana player to win the Ballon d'Or since Messi.

Van Dijk's 2024–25 season is the ultimate synthesis of power and intelligence, with the 33-year-old penning the last chapter of a centre-back's history with an ageless performance that has been rewarded with a contract extension.

As captain, Van Dijk has guided Liverpool the Premier League title, boosting the team's renowned spirit in the crisis of Klopp's departure.

But Van Dijk's Ballon d'Or situation has sad connotations. Despite having completed the most clearances among players from the EPL Big Six, and his 2900 minutes on the pitch indicating he is a fundamental element of the top defence, Liverpool's early Champions League departure makes his efforts seem isolated.

The truth is even much harsher: in the history of the Ballon d'Or, only two true centre-backs, Cannavaro (2006) and Beckenbauer (1976), have won the award, and both did so primarily on their successes in major tournaments.

It's not all doom and gloom, though, as Van Dijk should be able to break into the Ballon d'Or top 20 based on the "team spirit narrative" with Liverpool having won the Premier League. 

The tactical board in the Arsenal dressing room is gleaming thanks to marker pens highlighting William Saliba's 53 tackles (31 successful), 19 interceptions, 101 clearances, 11 clean sheets, and 94% passing accuracy by mid-April.

Beneath these frigid numbers is a player who defined the name "Ironman" with over 3420 minutes of full-time attendance across all competitions, with no player in the world accruing more.

William Saliba is the brain behind Arsenal's strong performances this season, posting the highest pass accuracy rate in the Premier League. He also tackles 76.9% of dribbles he faces (4th-highest success rate), and has made the fourth most touches in the division.

Saliba's value peaked during the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals against Real Madrid: in the first leg, he held Vinicius to zero shots on target, and in the second leg, he made up for an error with 11 clearances to silence a closed-roof Bernabéu.

His alliance with Gabriel in the Premier League has only conceded 27 goals, the fourth-lowest rate in Europe, directly establishing the Gunners as league runner-up.

Saliba's 2025 marks a modern statement on the art of defence. At 192cm, he can both dominate in the air and create aggressive launching points with precise passes, balancing the classical with the creative. He has completed the most passes into the final third in the Premier League this season.

However, the Ballon d'Or's prejudice is still icy: even if Saliba is selected for FIFA's Best XI or the PFA Team of the Season, the "invisible attribute" of a centre-back may still keep him out of the Top 10.

He needs more than just a double crown if he wants to copy Cannavaro's miracle; he also needs to keep PSG's swashbuckling front three scoreless and directly contribute to a goal in the Champions League's final two rounds. This "superhero script" may be the only way to break the prejudice.

Sporting director Luis Ocampos was greeted with media jeers for “mortgaging the future for the present” after Paris signed João Neves from Benfica for €70 million. With an average passing accuracy of 91% and 2.2 tackles/game and 1.2 key passes/game, the 20-year-old Portuguese midfielder has silenced all critics in 2025.

He has the 8th-best assist per 90 ratio as well as the 3rd best points per match average in Europe's top 5 leagues.

Neves' tactical value lies in his “invisible control”. He orchestrated PSG's attacking and defensive rhythm in the Champions League quarter-finals first leg against Aston Villa with 102 touches and a 98% passing success rate. Against Manchester City, he was a disruptive presence, accumulating 7 tackles and capping a midfield masterclass with a well-headed goal.

Although Vitinha has received all the plaudits, Neves has so far had the better season, with his ascent marking a modern interpretation of the traditional midfield general. He possesses a Kroos-like vision for passing, a Rodri-like nose for positioning, and even the sporadic Lampard-style threat going forward.

Nevertheless, the Ballon d'Or selection criteria have always been severe on the "low-key commander"; thus, even if PSG wins the Champions League, the judges are more likely to credit Dembélé's brilliance over Joao Neves.

To repeat Rodri's 2024 Ballon d'Or miracle, Neves will need a decisive assist or goal in the Champions League last two rounds as well as national glory, which is impossible this season with no major international event. The aim will thus be a top 10 finish.

Lewandowski, at 36, is still creating the notion of "reverse ageing" at Camp Nou. The Polish striker is flourishing in the 24–25 season, leading the La Liga scoring chart with 25 goals in 31 games and third in the Champions League with 11 goals in 12 appearances. His finishing skill is still at the highest, with his shooting conversion rate (23%) exactly matching the expected goals (xG).

Lewandowski, a stabilising agent in the locker room, has maintained Barcelona's offensive baseline with experience and composure in the turbulence following Xavi's departure. His two decisive penalties against Benfica and the brace against Bayern in the Champions League group stage both highlighted the essence of the "big-game" player.

Still, Lewandowski's challenges are as clear as his genius. Barcelona are still in pole position for a quadruple, but the rise of Raphinha and Lamine Yamal has reduced his tactical weight and diverted public attention from him.

Ballon d'Or assessors may thus wonder if a 36-year-old veteran could be the team's "primary protagonist." Unless he can lead the team to the top as the MVP of the Champions League final or repeat the glory of the sextuple in 2020 with Bayern, the brilliance of Lewandowski's personal statistics may face difficulty competing with the story of the next generation.

Gabriel Magalhães's number 26 jersey hangs silently in the social media dressing room with the word "Warrior" sewn on the sleeve—the most befitting description of his 24/25 season. With over 2300 minutes in the Premier League, a 59% success rate in aerial duels, and an outstanding 11 clean sheets, the Brazilian centre-back has created the strongest shield in the league for Arsenal.

Gabriel still ranks among the highest-scoring CBs in international football this season, but the apathy of the Ballon d'Or voters (not ranking within the top 30 for 2024) highlights the continuous conundrum facing defenders: their brilliance often depends on the general integrity of the squad.

Gabriel is not only the anchor of one of Europe's meanest defences but also the initiator of aggressive pressing as the ideal partner for Saliba. His charge for the Ballon d'Or is supported by Arteta's tactics, which has improved the Brazilian's adaptability.

But this extreme approach to being a "modern centre-back" has also made him a victim of the injury mechanism. Now, while Arsenal's path in the Champions League semifinal and their fate in the Premier League encore dangle precariously, Gabriel can only watch the "unfinished peak" of his career from the sidelines with his hamstring wrapped in a bandage.

With a career-best count of 6 goals and 14 assists, Achraf Hakimi is displaying the peak form of a full-back in the right wing corridors of Paris. While his 91% pass success rate with 2.1 tackles per game pushes the extreme between attack and defence, his well-taken strike against Aston Villa redeemed his wanning reputation as one of the world's best right backs.

Enrique has transformed him into a wingback who averages over a hundred touches per game as highlighted by when he cuts in to organise, and when he tears down the wings, his speed exceeds 90% of wingers, with the majority of PSG's attacks flowing like mercury from this double identity.

Although Hakimi's 2025 comprises a Ligue 1 championship, a frontrunner for a domestic triple, and a semi-final Champions League spot, his brilliance is greatly disputed.

Benevolent as his personal narrative is, the media have criticised Hakimi, despite his setting the record for the most assists by a defender in Paris Saint-Germain's history, for "lacking a signature moment in the Champions League knockout stages".

More subtly, the Moroccan's prospects are limited by the collective dilemma of full-backs whose value is expected to be polished by trophies instead of just “stats padding”.

For a shot at the Ballon d'Or, Hakimi doesn't just need PSG to beat Arsenal to progress to the Champions League final, but he must also score a goal against Arteta's red and white wall if he is to replicate Cafu's 2002 miracle.

Amidst the roars from the South Stand at Westfalenstadion, or Signal Iduna Park as it is officially known, a 190-cm tall Guinean attacker is redefining the term "complete forward." Guirassy scored 16 goals and provided one assist in the first 26 Bundesliga games, which pales in comparison to his more impressive 13 goals and 4 assists in the 14 Champions League games.

Although he has been a contender on this ranking since his exploits at the start of the year, Guirassy rose to mainstream consciousness with a stunning hat-trick against in-form Barcelona, which almost singlehandedly dragged Dortmund to semifinal qualification. At the time of his elimination in the Champions League quarters, Guirassy was the top scorer in the tournament.

With his 29 goals and 5 assists across both competitions, the African striker has carved the word "efficiency" into every inch of the pitch.

His Champions League efficiency of a goal every 83 minutes is 20% better than Haaland and Kane, while his ferocious penchant for shooting show an irresistible offensive drive.

Sadly, the football world is not sympathetic to "tragic heroes." The horrible 7th placement of Borussia Dortmund in the league has made Guirassy's road to the Ballon d'Or challenging.

His journey to the podium has however been boosted by his historic performance in Dortmund's quarter-final clash against Barcelona, who had three stronger candidates on their roster.

Like Ricken in 1997, Serhou Guirassy needed not only statistics but also a "saver" script in the Champions League to create one of the greatest blockbusters in Ballon d'Or history. He has played his part, and the rest is left to the judges.

Though not entirely nurtured at the academy, Pedri is the soul representing La Masia's resurrection, and his similarities to Iniesta are a silent nod to the legacy of Barça. With 4 goals and 4 assists (La Liga), 2 assists (Champions League), and an average of 1.7 key passes per game, the 22-year-old midfield maestro declared in the 2024–25 season his transition from "glass man" to "iron man".

His 89% passing success rate and six chances created versus Benfica in the Champions League have restored the glory of the Dream Team to Hans Flick's high-pressing possession style.

More important, however, is the fact that Pedri has essentially overcome physical issues, missing only 1 game all season.

The Spanish International's 2025 has been characterised by creativity, endurance, and decisiveness. Still, Pedri's performances this season have not been as outstanding as popular belief, with stats across every statistic falling much below Ballon d'Or levels.

Although he made the biggest impact yet in the Copa Del Rey final by opening the torrents of a five-goal thriller, he needs more key moments.

Notwithstanding, thanks to his key role in a treble-chasing season for giants like Barcelona, Pedri remains the cynosure of all eyes. The La Liga title race is getting heated, the Champions League quarterfinal versus Inter Milan is approaching, and the Copa del Rey is already in the trophy cabinet.

Should Pedri match Iniesta's MVP performance in the 2015 Champions League final, a top five Ballon d'Or slot will be guaranteed.

With all-round numbers of six goals and two assists, 95 per cent Champions League passing accuracy, and 5.6 recoveries/game, 25-year-old Vitinha is redefining the value of the modern midfielder in Paris Saint-Germain's tactical laboratory.

In the Champions League quarter-finals first leg against Aston Villa, Vitinha gave a dominant performance with 164 touches, a 97% passing accuracy, 3 interceptions, and 3 key passes, rendering the midfield trio of Tielemans, Kamara, and McGinn as mere spectators.

Vitinha has improved Luis Enrique's "pseudo-possession" style by averaging six accurate long balls per game and ultra-clean tackling in the Champions League, enabling PSG to strike a mix between style and efficiency in their attacks.

Vitinha's dilemma, however, is the fate of all "core systems". Though Luis Enrique and PSG have praised him as "the best midfielder in Europe", and he has helped the team to Ligue 1 and French Super Cup triumphs, Dembélé still dominates the Ballon d'Or scene.

Vitinha needs more than just the Champions League trophy if he wants to replicate Modric's 2018 Cinderella tale; he also needs to be named the man of the match and provide a key goal contribution in at least one leg of the semi-final against Arsenal. It is through this that the silent alchemist can then reveal his genius to the world.

From Paris to Madrid, Mbappé's 24–25 season has been mixed with highs and lows. Although his record of 18 goals in 25 La Liga games is considerably less than the duo of Raphinha and Lewandowski, Mbappé's dominance in the Champions League is unparalleled.

Despite a slow start, the French man's 7 goals in 14 Champions League games—including a historic hat-trick against Manchester City in the Round of 16—have made Bernabéu supporters completely discard doubts about "if Mbappé fits Real Madrid."

The Frenchman's expected goals (xG) in Europe are just surpassed by three players, and his explosive counterattack speed is still the most devastating weapon in football.

Kylian Mbappé sealed the UEFA Super Cup for Madrid in August by scoring the second goal and also came off the bench to draw Los Blancos level against Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey final, already becoming Madrid's goto man in big moments in just his first season.

Even more impressive was the fact that he scored his first direct free-kick in his career with this goal, sending the popular satirical twitter account "Has Mbappe scored a free-kick?" to extinction. He has now scored more goals than his idol Ronaldo did in his debut season with Madrid.

Although these components are sufficient to set the media ablaze, hidden risks abound: Raphinha and Salah eclipse Mbappé's league statistics, and the "multi-core structure” of Real Madrid's locker room distorts his story of personal heroism.

Worse still, Kylian Mbappé has thrived on purple patches this season, failing to score or assist in either the Round of 16 or quarter-final round of the UEFA Champions League .

For a shot at his first Ballon d'Or, Mbappé needed to present a magnificent performance like he did in the 2018 and 2022 World Cup finals. He will now have to wait another year.

With 6 goals and 5 assists in 3 matches, Nuno Mendes, one of the most underappreciated football marvels in 2025, has his name darted in a red circle on the tactical board at the Parc des Princes.

The 22-year-old tireless Portuguese left-back has stretched the boundaries of the contemporary wingback with all-around performances, and his offensive contributions are good enough to rival most wingers.

While he contributed at the front end of the pitch with two goals and two assists against Aston Villa in the Champions League quarter-finals, he was a defensive monster against Premier League runaway leaders Liverpool, proving impossible to dribble past in 210 minutes of high-level football despite facing 25 ground duels.

Unfortunately, Mendes's situation is like that of all defensive geniuses: even if he has helped his team win Ligue 1 and the French Super Cup and even if he single-handedly anchors Paris's left flank in both attack and defence, the brilliance of Vitinha and Dembélé is still more captivating to the Ballon d'Or judges.

Unless he wins the Champions League while simultaneously replicating Carlos's free-kick miracle from the 2002 World Cup final, Mendes will at most become another genius hampered by his position.

Beyond the "Dual Kings Battle" between Raphinha and Salah, the 2025 Ballon d'Or event has grown even more mysterious with the inclusion of heavyweight star Harry Kane, who launched his bid for football's highest individual honour in a quite different manner.

Harry Kane joined Bayern Munich in 2023, and the shadows of the "no-trophy curse” have followed him. Two years later, though, the England captain has shown by his deeds that true legends never yield to fate.

Kane has scored 24 goals and given 7 assists in the first 28 Bundesliga games, as well as 11 goals in 13 Champions League games. His goal conversion rate of 25% far exceeds his 20 expected goals (xG), and his capacity to "turn the ordinary into the magical" makes every touch in the box a killer.

Harry Kane is also now the fastest player to 60 goals on Bundesliga history, supplanting Erling Haaland's record (65) by five games.

Kane has assumed the position of locker room leader at Bayern, redefining the function of a modern centre forward with precise long passes and selfless linking play..

While his calmness in pivotal situations—such as his three-goal haul in two legs over Leverkusen in the Round of 16—shows the instincts of a quality striker, Musiala and Olise have been freed by his ability to drop back and organise.

Bayern are dead cert to win the Bundesliga, which can only boost his podium finish.

But Kane's Achilles's weakness is very clear: the competitive intensity and exposure of the Bundesliga are not as high as those of the Premier League and La Liga.

Although he brandished a lethal finish in the second leg of the very difficult quarter-final tie against Inter Milan, Kane has failed to establish himself as the "Mr Big Stage" to contest for the Ballon d'Or.

The Englishman needed to achieve the greatest comeback in the football world with the combined laurels of a Champions League triumph and the tournament's top scorer.

Despite his 11 goals in the UCL ranking third at the time of Bayern's elimination, it is far from enough, as the Ballon d'Or judges would query whether a Bundesliga salad bowl is enough to win football's highest individual honour.

Joshua Kimmich's number 6 shirt in the Allianz Arena locker room is covered with sweat and blood, evidence of Bayern's "injury hell" of 2025. 

Delivering an overloaded performance with 2 goals and 5 assists (Bundesliga), 4 assists (Champions League), 11 big chances created in UCL (joint leader as of elimination), 15 big chances created (3rd-highest), and a 93% pass success rate, the 30-year-old German Ironman has been compelled to fluidly interchange between right-back and defensive midfielder.

Kimmich's season is the swansong of the classic midfielder, and these performances confirm that he remains the most perfect tactical piece in the football world.

But Bayern's small squad and Kompany's aggressive man-marking technique have driven him to the point of breakdown, as shown in the 4-1 loss to Barcelona, where he was dribbled past thrice and committed an error leading to a goal.

Though his lone bravery in "standing shoulder to shoulder with the gods as a mere mortal" is admirable, the Ballon d'Or is not renowned for favouring tragic heroes.

Kimmich needed a strong performance at the level of a Champions League final for a chance at the Ballon d'Or, but fate has already slammed the stop button at the semi-finals doorstep. He can only hope for a spot in the Champions League best XI, as the "basic package" of Bundesliga champion plus Champions League quarter-finals is unlikely to sway the Ballon d'Or judges.

Vinícius's 24-25 season is a quiet recovery from the disappointment of losing the Ballon d'Or to Rodri. Although his statistics of 11 goals and 5 assists in 26 La Liga matches and 8 goals in 12 Champions League matches are not as spectacular as Raphinha's, the Brazilian winger's importance is well above what the stats can summarise.

As the explosive point of Real Madrid's attack, his breakthrough efficiency directly decides the team's ceiling, with Ancelotti's style always retaining the potential of a "blitzkrieg" due to his presence. He scored the only goal for Los Blancos in the humiliating 5-1 aggregate loss, albeit with the aid of a defensive error.

Although Vinicius's podium finish in the 2025 Ballon d'Or is dependent on his performance in the title showdown against Barcelona, his and Madrid's performance in the quarter-finals against Arsenal has erased any chances of a plaque win.

Vinicius needed to reproduce the miracles of the 2022 knockout stage to compensate for the "shortcomings" in his personal stats and impress the judges with decisive performance in big moments.

With that not forthcoming, his goal-scoring efficiency is not yet Ballon d'Or standards.

With a season total of 11 goals and 13 assists in 26 games, the 23-year-old Saka is undergoing a fierce makeover from "promising star" to "world-class superstar" under the lights of the Emirates Stadium.

Saka's 24/25 season is epitomised by the twin elements of creative supremacy in the Premier League and the god-slaying moments in the Champions League.

In the Champions League he has directly contributed to 7 goals (5 goals and 2 assists) in 7 matches and won the two free kicks converted by Rice against Madrid. In the league, Saka has torn through opponents' defences with remarkable ease, creating 19 big chances (the third-most) and 10 assists, despite missing large chunks of the season due to injury.

Arteta's tactical approach has stretched Saka to the breaking point. Being a right winger in a 4-2-3-1 configuration, he can either sprint at 36 km/h to overwhelm full-backs or cut inside with his left foot to provide lethal through balls, thereby acting as Arsenal's switch for victory or defeat.

Should Arsenal miraculously clinch the Premier League and Champions League crowns, Saka might become the first English player to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen. But should both tournaments fall apart, it will be much more difficult for him to shed the "trophy-less genius" tag.

In the hearts of ultras at the Meazza Stadium, a massive TIFO showing Lautaro Martínez draped in the Argentine flag, standing on the Champions League trophy, is the dream scenario envisioned by Inter Milan supporters for their "new king" in 2025.

The 27-year-old Argentine sharpshooter this season became the first South American player other than Messi to plunder 8 goals in the Champions League.

Lautaro's world-class finishing in Europe—best shown by his overperformance on his expected goals value by 100% and the achievement of scoring in five consecutive Champions League matches, the first in Inter Milan history—stretches the notion of "box hunter" to the farthest extreme.

Three elements define Lautaro's 2025: the Coppa Italia hunt, the god-slaying moment of the Champions League, and the push for the Scudetto.

This season, the Argentine became the first Inter Milan player in 15 years to score 8 goals in a single Champions League season, three of which came against Monaco in the group stage, while the latest was the quarterfinal dagger that sent Bayern back to Bavaria.

With five winning goals, Lautaro Martinez has guided Nerazzurri to the top of the Serie A standings—a stat especially outstanding for a team with a chain defence setup.

Still, the Ballon d'Or's strict criteria raise questions: can Inter Milan go all the way on all three fronts?

The Serie A championship battle is getting heated, with Napoli on their tails; the Champions League semifinal is against a blistering Barcelona, and the Coppa Italia is still up for grabs with a semifinal second leg versus Milan still to be negotiated.

If Inter repeat Mourinho's miracle treble of 2010, Lautaro will secure at least a top-five slot with his dual identity as an "all-around striker + big-game player"; but, should the Nerazzurri fail on all fronts, his 21-goal frenzy will be reduced to a "data brush" joke.

The Argentine has suffered the first setback and has harmed the chances of winning the Ballon d'Or after Inter's humiliating 3-0 defeat to AC Milan in the second leg of the Coppa Italia.

Since his historic twin free-kick masterclass against Real Madrid, polls on social media have been establishing Declan Rice as the current best midfielder in the world. The 26-year-old England defensive midfielder, with 6 goals and 8 assists in 41 appearances (Premier League and Champions League), a 90% passing accuracy and 36 ball recoveries in the Champions League, has redefined the upper limit of the "number 6" position.

Rice has elevated Arteta's tactical revolution. He is both the mobile wall in front of the centre-backs (season-high 5 interceptions versus Madrid) and the primary initiator of counterattacks (season-high 4 chances created against Manchester City).

Wielding the full repertoire required for a modern midfielder, Declan Rice can break through a solid defence with powerful headers and also orchestrate rapid attacks with crisp long passes.

Although he is now a darling in the eyes of fans, Rice's journey to the Ballon d'Or is riddled with hurdles.

Despite outshining Bellingham in direct confrontations (earning the best player award in both legs of the Premier League versus Real Madrid) and despite leading Arsenal to their greatest-ever Champions League performance, the judges still favour the brilliance of attackers.

Rice could become the third defensive midfielder to win the Ballon d'Or if Arsenal miraculously clinches the Premier League and Champions League double, which is quite unlikely. But if they finish as runners-up in both competitions, as they have done in the past few years, his great season could be remembered as a "legend of regret".

Despite the many detractors and talks of an underwhelming campaign, Haaland's greatness in the 2024–25 season is indisputable.

In the Champions League, he scored 8 goals in 9 matches and netted 21 goals in the first 28 matches of the Premier League—including two hat-tricks—bettering 99% of players globally.

With his shot accuracy percentage of 54.5% and 0.69 non-penalty expected goal value (npxG/90), the Norwegian is still the most accurate finishing machine in the football scene.

Still, Haaland's seemingly grim chances of a Ballon d'Or result from his so-called “mediocre” statistics. Normalising a benchmark of 40 goals per season has seen many begin to yearn for "superhuman moments" from him.

Furthermore, City's disastrous exit from the Champions League and their slide to fifth position in the Premier League have placed an asterisk on his name in the Ballon d'Or standings.

More importantly, Haaland's "penalty box predator" and Guardiola's possession-based approach have always subdued his superstar image, with his average touches per game (22.8) even lower than many goalkeepers.

Maybe Haaland needs a vacation, just like Ronaldo left Manchester United. But before that, his Ballon d'Or chances were just a mirror, reflecting the perpetual conundrum between data supremacy and team honours.

Twenty-one-year-old Bellingham is going from "genius prodigy" to "icon of the era" under the Bernabéu's lights. With a blazing La Liga + Champions League record of 11 goals, 10 assists, 74 ball recoveries, and 34 key passes in his first 38 games, he has redefined the top limit of an all-round midfielder this 2024–25 season. Benevolent behind these figures is a perfect hexagonal warrior combining leadership, power, and ability into a weapon of war.

Two fractured stories make up Bellingham's 2025: the "divinity" on the local scene and the "mortality" in the European competition. The Englishman is the data monster in La Liga, scoring eight times and ruling the top five ratings of both Sofascore and WhoScored; in the Champions League, however, he was a mere backdrop on the night Arsenal defeated Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate.

Though he scored a great strike against Bayern in the group stage, Bellingham's one really outstanding performance has been eclipsed by the quarter-final collapse.

Unfortunately, Ancelotti's tactical innovation accentuates his paradoxes. Bellingham excels under high-pressure pressing as a combination of a false nine and a B2B midfielder, but a weakness in Real Madrid's midfield depth causes him to drop back excessively to organise.

The hopes of a Ballon d'Or are now dead in the water for Jude, who is now expected to achieve atonement with a La Liga title. If Real Madrid beat Barcelona to claim the championship, Bellingham might land a top-ten slot with one of Madrid's best midfield statistics this twenty-first century.